Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Halladay Deal...We Think.

Phillies:
Roy Halladay
Phillippe Aumont
Juan Ramirez
Tyson Gillies
$6 million

Mariners:
Cliff Lee

Blue Jays:
Kyle Drabek
Michael Taylor
Travis D’Arnaud

What the Phils gave up:
#1 pitcher who they weren’t likely to sign long term.
Three of their top 4 prospects.

What the Phils get:
#1 pitcher for the next four years.
Three top 10 Mariners prospects that are substantially less “prospectical” than those heading the other direction.

My feeling as of 9:42:
I understand that signing Lee was unlikely and locking up a true number one starter is great. But I think they could have done better. I’m not sold on the Mariners prospects. I would rather have seen the Phils get one high value prospect from the Mariners (ie Michael Saunders) instead of three relatively lower value minor leaguers.

Also, I agree with the many people who have wondered why the Phils just didn’t keep Lee, take the $9 million dollar hit this season, be the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series, and then take the draft picks when he leaves in free agency after the season. Those picks might be as valuable as the prospects from Seattle and could you imagine a Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Happ rotation? Blanton could have been unloaded to offset Lee’s salary, too. Oh, that would have been great.

More on this as it unfolds.

Monday, December 14, 2009

What the Halladay is going on?

In July of 2009 Ruben Amaro Jr. landed the reigning American League Cy Young- Cliff Lee. Clifton Phifer Lee pitched brilliantly during his tenure as a Phillie, especially in the postseason, and I look(ed) forward to watching him dominate for a full season in Phillies pinstripes in '10. That may not be happening though, as my favorite non-Phillie, Roy Halladay, is in town with agent and set to take a physical as means of becoming a Phillie. Amaro wants to negotiate a contract extension with Doc prior to the deal, to ensure he's getting optimal value for the package he is sending in the other direction. Who is in the package, and what direction is the package going is yet to be determined. Reports have the Phils and Blue Jays hooked up with a mystery third team. It's believed Lee would be sent to said third team for a package of prospects the would then be used to lure Halladay away from Toronto. Confused? Me too. Skeptical? Me too. Right now we're in the wait-and-see mode, but it sure does seem that Rube is cooking up something big.

I love me some Cliff Lee, but he's young and wants to test the free agent market next offseason and will command top dollar. Halladay will command big money too, but I think he desires to be on a team that is a near lock for the playoffs, as are the Phils, and will sign an extension to do so. So, if the trade is essentially 1 year of Lee's services for multiple year's of Halladays, then I'm all for it. Rube is a crafty S.O.B., so I'm excited to see how this pans out. I've got my credit card ready to purchase the jersey.

Update:
Cliff Lee to the Mariners, Seattle prospects to Blue Jays, Roy Halladay to us. To quote Andrew from the previous comment thread, "Apparently a done deal. Wow. I'm kind of speechless."

On The Curtis Granderson Trade

In blog post a few days ago, Carson had this to say about a rumor that the Phils may move Joe Blanton to gain payroll flexibility:
Why in the hell are the Phillies clearing payroll? They are one of the most lucrative franchises in the MLB.
Moving Blanton and clearing payroll, for whatever reason, is merely conjecture. The who, the what, the when, Roy Hallady – typical Hot Stove fodder. What peaks my interest is the question of why the Phillies would clear payroll. After thinking about it for about thirty seconds, I said to myself, “So they don’t end up like the Detroit Tigers.”

The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003. At that time they had a payroll of a relatively mere $49 million. Three years later, the Tigers had almost doubled payroll and had a very successful year, losing four games to one in the World Series.

The Tigers won 88 games the following season and narrowly missed the playoffs. The organization hadn’t seen the team finish that high in the standings back to back years since the 80’s. I’m sure the success was a breath of fresh air at Comerica, but like the breath you take from a balloon full of nitrous, it’s an inhalation that can cause you to do stupid things.

In 2008, the Tigers sold more season tickets than they ever had before. They wanted to build on that success so they kept all of their contributors from the previous seasons and even brought in more (expensive) talent. Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Brandon Inge, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson were all given big contracts. Their payroll was second only to the mighty New York Yankees.

It seemed that the Tigers were spending beyond their means. I’m sure all the spending was justified by looking at the increased revenue that was gained by making the playoffs, with the increased ticket sales and with all the other peripheral revenue that comes with winning. But things didn’t go according to plan.

The Tigers finished dead last. The world’s economic troubles hit Michigan very hard and despite the record season ticket sales, not many people showed up to watch the struggling Tigers. The following year, they returned to respectable form but a second place finish was not good enough to generate substantial attendance increases or make the playoffs. There was no playoff payoff. The Tigers were in trouble. Forget adding players to make the team better, they could no longer afford their current roster. And they had millions committed in long term contracts for players who had already reached their peak so there was no immediate resolution to their money problems.

In response to the money crunch the Tigers have begun lowering payroll. Curtis Granderson, whose contract is heavily backloaded, was unloaded. Edwin Jackson, while a bargain now will be due for a substantial pay raise very shortly, so he was shipped off. In return they got some quality young talent (Max Sherzer, Austin Jackson) that will be under team control for modest amounts of money for the next few years. It’s nice to have young, affordable talent, but the team is not as good as it was one week ago, is less likely to make the playoff and they still have a ton of money to pay this year. The Tigers overplayed their hand. They extended themselves too much and have quickly gone from contender to rebuilder.

Joe Blanton and a few million dollars are not even in the same ballpark as the salary and spending explosion of the Detroit Tigers but there are enough similarities between the teams and the organizations that the Phils (and us fans) should take warning. There is a ceiling to the spending and when teams hit that ceiling and lose their payroll “flexibility” the teams suffer.

As Phillies fans, we’ve been trained like Pavlov’s dog to yell “cheap” as soon as we hear any sign of reluctance to spend money from management. But the Phils haven’t been so frugal lately. The payroll has risen significantly in the last five years, starting even before any postseason appearances. So the next time you hear the Phillies brass talk about payroll flexibility or the like, think about the Detroit Tigers and be thankful that there is some restraint in the front office.

Now, when the Pirates talk about payroll flexibility, feel free to scream and throw something.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Retention, Subtraction, and Additions

Retention:
As expected arbitration eligible players Joe Blanton, Carlos Ruiz, Chad Durbin, and Shane Victorino were tendered contracts. All will receive raises from the previous season. It was a no-brainer to keep Blanton, Chooch, and Vic, but the decision to retain Durbin probably stemmed from Ruben's inability to land any relief help yet. Chad is a good guy, and I welcome him back.

Subtraction:
Clay Condrey was not tendered a contract, and therefore becomes a free agent. He's been with the club for 4 years, and did a decent job in the mop-up role he was given. 16 wins, 161 games, 189.2 innings, and a 3.65 ERA during his time here. I'll miss him.

Additions:
A couple weeks ago I reported on the minor league additions of DeWayne Wise and Wilson Valdez, and today I add some to that list. Former Pirate outfielder Chris Duffy has been invited to spring training. The man looks like a mini-Dykstra, so keep your fingers crossed and hope for Phucco status. Utility infielder Cody Ransom is also a non-roster spring invitee that brings some depth to the organization. He was the Yankees Opening Day starter at 3rd base last year in A-Rod's absence.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Create the Caption


"The Mayan calendar never lies, just ask Dutch Daulton."

*Image borrowed from Jim Horwat, who also produced a fine piece of artwork of the 2008 Phillies.
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WSBGMs Bowl Challenge:
Reminder to register for the NCAA college bowl challenge through Yahoo. Winner gets their name and virtual trophy in a future post on the site. League ID#- 14712, Password- wsbgms. The more the merrier...at least that's what they say in European orgies.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Hot Stove Unicorns

These are exciting times around Philly land with all of this Roy Halladay talk. Very fun. But something about these rumors isn't sitting well with me and since I have this forum to vent, I shall.

Recent posts from various blogs (including this one) have included teasers that mention the inclusion of Cole Hamels in a possible trade. That bit of info comes from an article in the NY Daily News by Mark Feinsand. He wrote this in his column:
According to one source: “Don't rule out them including Cole Hamels.”
That's it. Basically, some guy who obviously isn’t in any way connected with the Phillies because he calls them “them,” tells some other guy about a trade possibility that he completely fabricated. The other guy happens to be a sportswriter so he writes about this imaginary trade scenario in his column. He calls the guy a “source,” thereby successfully making one random person’s random opinion appears to be “insider information.”

I’ve finally learned the difference between a blogger and a “legitimate” sports writer. The blogger creates or propagates baseless rumors so people will read. The “legitimate” sports writer creates or propagates baseless rumors so people will read, but attributes the opinions to “sources” so they appear to be, well, legitimate. Brilliant!

In other hot stove news:
According to a source, “the Yankees could trade Sabathia to the Phils.” One source tells me that Cliff Lee “is interested in being the next football coach at Notre Dame.” Another source indicates that “Carlos Ruiz may have visa issues and could be stuck in Panama for the start of the season.”

If anyone has any "sources" please let us know because we would love to report some breaking Hot Stove news on this site. Thanks.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Say Hello to a Future Roster Casualty

Today on the final day of the MLB Winter Meetings the Phillies selected some dude from the Angels organization in the Rule 5 Draft. Some dude is named Ken Herndon, who also goes by David Herndon in some circles. He's a tall (6'5") righthanded pitcher that has experienced some success in relief after faltering in A-ball while starting. The 24 year old hasn't pitched above Double-A and has a minor league line of: 26-23, 3.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 28 sv, and 224 k's in 387.2 ip. He was drafted 3 times (Royals in '04, Twins in '05, and Angels in '06), so there might be some upside to him. Snippet scouting report from Baseball America says, "Good control in Double-A for sinker-slider righthander, who also throws a splitter." Realistically, this guy stands no chance of cracking the 25-man roster in the spring, and for now is merely a warm body on the 40-man roster.

Past Rule 5 Draft flunkies- Robert Mosebach, Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, Adam Donachie, Jim Ed Warden, and Ryan Budde...bunch of all-stars there right? In fact, the last successful Rule 5 draftee the Phils had was Shane Victorino in 2004, and even he didn't make the Opening Day roster.

Other News:
*Roy Halladay remains a possibility for the Phils, with trade pieces including some combination of JA Happ, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, and even Cole Hamels. Joe Blanton would also presumably need to be moved in order to clear salary. I'll believe all this when it happens, and it probably won't.

*John Smoltz is being targeted as a back of the bullpen arm for the Phightins and has said he doesn't have a problem with the Brick Cit House (contrary to previous quotes).

*Phils are kicking the tires of veteran lefty reliever Ron Mahay and groundball inducing starting pitcher Jason Marquis.

Name That Player #7

Standings:
Preserve Jon - 2
Joseph- 2
Mike The Mac Guy - 1
Andrew- 1
This former player had some decent seasons with the Phils. He played 2 years in independent ball before retiring from baseball in the late 90's.

Ding, ding, ding...round 7. Name that player!

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Ross Gload a Phillie

Ruben Amaro Jr. wasted no time this offseason bolstering the bench with 3 players that fit the exact mold of what the Phillies needed. Juan Castro was first aboard as the utility infielder, then followed Brian Schneider at backup catcher, and now rounding out the final open reserve role will be 1st baseman/corner outfielder Ross Gload. The bench now consists of the three players named above with Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco.

Gload, who will turn 34 close to Opening Day, is a veteran of 8 MLB seasons playing for the Cubs, Rockies, White Sox, Royals, and most recently the Marlins. The left-handed batter has a career line of- .283/.736 with 176 r, 77 2b, 28 hr, and 192 rbi in 608 games. I know this once again makes the Phils bench lean to the left (Schneider and Dobbs also LH), but Gloads has a better career average against lefties (.298) than righties (.279). His addition to the squad makes sense because he's a proven role player and has done a decent job of it during his career. The Phils would have likely gone with strikeout happy John Mayberry Jr. for the final bench spot had they not signed Gload, and Gload's .300 lifetime batting average as a pinch hitter gives me more comfort than Mayberry's 40% strikeout rate.
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Winter Meeting Rumors:

*The Phillies have extended offers to Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre, but they seem to be less that thrilled by the proposal and signing does not seem imminent.

*Brandon Lyon fits the mold of set-up man with closing experience, but may be out of the Phils self-imposed price range.

*Joe Blanton is supposedly on the trade market. This makes no sense to me unless the Phils plan on bringing in someone better. Currently, Blanton is the only righty in the rotation and has been consistent pitcher over his career. The stories have him being traded to clear room (salary wise) for an established bullpen arm. Why in the hell are the Phillies clearing payroll? They are one of the most lucrative franchises in the MLB. I'm not saying they should spend like the Yankees, but if they don't put a quality rotation on the field that helps garner a 4th straight playoff appearance, then they'll lose more money by fans not showing up to the ballpark, buying merchandise, and tv revenue then they would by giving Blanton a couple extra million for one last season.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Offseason Rant #2

My first rant addressed the lunacy and hypocrisy of the “sacrifice fly.” After I was done I thought of a few more rules that I don’t like...again, besides the stupid DH.

Why doesn’t a batter get an RBI if he hits into a double play? The run still scores as a direct result of the batter hitting the ball and I’m pretty sure that is the definition of a “run batted in.” I understand not getting an RBI due to an error because you can theorize that the run resulted more from the error than the hit. But that logic can’t be transferred to the double play. The run isn’t a result of the double play. It isn’t because the defense chose the double play over getting the runner out at home? That makes no sense and a batter can get an RBI for other plays officially scored “fielder’s choice.” Is it because two outs are made? That makes no sense. I can’t think of any reason for this. It’s bad enough for a player to GIDP, at least they can give him the RBI he deserves.

It's beyond stupid that the team from winning league in the All Star game gets home field advantage in the World Series. This is possibly the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. Winning is secondary to making sure as many players get in the game and home team players play as many innings as possible. Starters are going two innings. Some players don’t even go to the game. The teams aren’t the best possible collection of players because every team needs a representative. The starters are picked on popularity and not performance. Even if the best players are chosen to start, when the game is being decided in the late innings, they are already out of the game. And most importantly, it’s a damn exhibition game!!!! Coin flip, best record, interleague records, alternating advantage…anything would be better than this stupid rule.

There are too many rules limiting the use of approved equipment. Here are two examples that should be abolished:
  • A fielder cannot throw his glove at a batted ball in an attempt to change the path of ball. Why the hell not? If you are so good that you can throw your glove at a ball travelling at speeds of over 100 MPH with such precision that you can hit the ball and redirect in a direction that makes fielding it easier, not only should it be allowed it should be rewarded with some sort of trophy at the end of the year for the player that is most successful.
  • A catcher may not use his facemask to field the ball. This rule is not enforced much anymore since the catchers are using the hockey style mask more and more, but on numerous occasions in the past, the most recent being this last season, I’ve seen a baserunner awarded advancement of one base after a catcher used his facemask to drag a ball on the ground back into his area after receiving a pitch in the dirt. Most of the time the runner is not attempting to advance and the use of the mask isn’t giving the catcher any sort of advantage. Usually the catcher is just being lazy. I don’t understand this rule and I can’t think of any reason why it should be enforced any longer.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Phillies Beer




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WSBGMs Bowl Challenge:
Last year we branched out from our typical fantasy baseball league for We Should Be GMs and added the NCAA Tournament challenge. This year we also welcomed "phantasy phootball" into the mix. Now we're offering the opportunity to pick the winners of the college football bowl games. The winner...gets nothing. If interested, it is run through Yahoo Fantasy Sports and the league ID # and password will be in the comments section. Charlie Weis' Whizzes is waiting for you!

Name That Player #6

Standings:
Preserve Jon - 2
Mike The Mac Guy - 1
Andrew- 1
harbesjb (aka Joseph) - 1

These two baseball card buddies appeared in a total of 12 major league games, all for the Phils. You need both to get the credit. Name These Players!

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Create the Caption


"He couldn't bear to see the Phils lose."

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Et Tu Costé

I know it was a few days ago but I didn't want to miss out on the Photoshop opportunity.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Offseason Rant

Usually we stick to Phillies and Pirates baseball on this site but the offseason can be a bit slow, so to spice things up a bit I’ll be occasionally writing about baseball items not necessarily Pennsylvania based. There are some things I’ve been chewing on and I’ll be presenting them randomly as “Offseason Rants.” Enjoy. Or Don’t, I don’t really care, as long as you click on some of our sponsors so I can afford diapers…

Up first, the stupidest rule in baseball, next to the DH of course, the sacrifice fly.

I love the sacrifice bunt, both strategically and in spirit. You need to advance that baserunner so instead of swinging away, you drop one down, conceding the out and your chance of a base hit, literally sacrificing your glory and your stats for the good of the team. But wait, you didn’t sacrifice your stats because baseball rules celebrate your unselfishness by not only pretending you never came to the plate, but by giving you positive check in the “sacrifice bunt” category. It makes perfect sense. It’s a rule that is good for the player, good for the game and good for young children who can learn the value of team over individual.
The sacrifice fly, on the other hand, is a freaking joke. There is a runner on third that needs to get home so you swing as hard as you can and jack one to deep center, but not quite far enough and the outfielder tracks it down at the wall. The runner trots home and you, like the noble bunter, is rewarded with forgotten at-bat and a place in the box score next to “Sac Fly.” Problem is, rarely is there ever any sacrificing involved in a “sacrifice fly.” It’s a bullshit stat that has been plaguing the game for years. Consider this:

  • The “sacrifice fly” is only given when a runner advances from third to home. Apparently, you can’t “give yourself up” through the air to get a runner to third. No, that would be silly.
  • If a bunter is determined to have been attempting to get a base hit with his bunt and the advancement of the runner was merely coincidental, or a side effect of the bunt, the batter is not given a “sacrifice bunt.” Have you ever seen a “sac fly” not given because the official scorer deems that the batter was actually trying for a hit? That would be preposterous because the fact is, almost every “sac fly” is the result of a batter trying for a hit. Sure, batters will attempt to “get the ball in the air” or “hit one hard somewhere” but hardly ever does a batter say, “I’m just going to lift one to center about 375 feet, not too far so that it goes over the fence, but far enough that the runner can score.”
And what about the good old fashioned ground ball? It gets no respect, despite the fact that many times a player will actually sacrifice an at-bat by slapping a pitch to the second baseman to get a man to third or home. And I know I’m not alone in thinking that the “sacrifice grounder” is a necessary stat. Coaches, teammates, and announcers go out of their way to comment on a player who advances runners in this matter, even saying things like, “That won’t show up in the box score.” Well, why the hell not? Hell, the Phillies gave David Bell millions of dollars for this skill alone.

So, in summary, the” sacrifice fly” is crap. It is merely a convenient result of an otherwise typical approach and should be A)banished from the record book or 2)expanded to include advancement to other bases along with the addition of the “sacrifice grounder” to make it consistent with established “sacrifice” rules. At least, that is what I think.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Polly Want A Cracker?

Numerous sources have the Phillies close to signing Placido "Polly" Polanco to a 2 year $10-12M deal to play 3rd base. Baseball gurus such as ESPN's Jayson Stark, FOX's Ken Rosenthal, as well as Phillies' own Todd Zolecki have confirmed this. In my opinion Polanco seems to be the best cost effective alternative at 3rd base. Chone Figgins is ideal, but is out of the Phillies price range. Adrian Beltre is represented by Scott Boras who is said to be seeking a 4 year deal. Mark DeRosa is decent, but his glove at 3rd is not an asset, only his bat is. Miguel Tejada would be worth a look, but he's never played 3rd base before. That brings me back to Polly, who is a lifetime .303/.761 hitter and plays Gold Glove worthy defense (albeit at 2nd base). He was successful for 4 seasons with the Phillies (2002-2005) playing 3rd and 2nd base, and was later shipped out to make room for Chase Utley, netting the Phillies a utility infielder in the form of Ramon Martinez and a machete murderer in the form of Ugueth Urbina. He has not played 3rd base since 2005, but his range is still good, his arm is still strong, and he's only made 15 errors at the position in 322 games (.982 fielding %).

The Detroit Tigers did not offer arbitration to Polanco, making him even more attractive to the Phillies. Placido is also a contact hitter (only 391 k's in 12 seasons), ideal for batting 2nd, which would allow Shane Victorino to drop to 7th in the lineup serving as a table-setter down there. He's 34 years old, bats right, and is considered to be one of the more savvy ball players in terms of baseball smarts. The addition of Polanco would all but seal up the offensive side of the game for the Phils, leaving only the pitching staff to be addressed this offseason.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Name That Player #5

"Preserve Jon" leads with two correct with "Mike The Mac Guy" and "Andrew" just one behind. Time for Round 5.
This pitcher was drafted 4 times in the early 80's and walked more batters than he struck out in his MLB career.

Name that player!