Breaking News- Chase Utley DL Bound

The Phillies haven't announced the roster move yet, but I have it on good authority that Chase Utley is heading to the disabled list.  By "good authority", I mean hunch, and by "hunch", I mean that I'm just making this shit up.  Instead of heading to Washington with the team for the series against the Nationals, Utley is going to Philly to have an MRI on his rib cage for his effed up oblique.

"It definitely scared me a little bit. My first swing I took in BP, I felt something. My second swing, I felt it again. My third swing, I felt it again. After the fourth swing, I realized something wasn't right. That's when I told Charlie I have some pain in my side. He told me to go see Scott [head trainer]. He took me out of the game. I think it was a smart thing to do. You want to be careful with these things, because they could linger and get worse if you try to play through it. I think we caught it early enough, but it's hard to know until we have some imaging on it."~Chase Utley

In other words, minimal 15-day DL stint.  2013 is so much fun!!!

Be Ashamed, Very Ashamed

Mike Adams - DL.

Carlos Ruiz - DL.

Ryan Howard - day-to-day, meaning he's DL bound.

Roy Halladay - out indefinitely. 

Ben Revere's OPS - .569
Runs Scored - 157 (27th)
OPS - .682 (26th)
ERA - 4.26 (22nd)
Bullpen ERA - 4.63 (27th)

From the Beat:
*via Twitter

Ryan Lawerence - ... and they are 1-9 in games started by Cole Hamels.

Todd Zolecki - Marlins on pace to finish 46-116. If this 5-1 lead holds, four of their 13 wins will have come against the Phillies.

Matt Gelb - The Phillies have scored two or fewer runs in 40 percent of their games. Think about that.

Me - It is time to blow up this team, because they ain't winning with this cast of clowns.  Of course, trusting Amaro to trade for young, cheap talent is like trusting a politician to follow through with campaign promises.

Series Preview - Florida Fishies

Philadelphia Phillies (21-23) @ Miami Marlins (12-32)

Pitching Match-Ups:
Monday - C'mon Hamels vs. Alex Sanabia
Tuesday - Tyler Cloyd vs. Jose Fernandez
Wednesday - Cliff Lee vs. Kevin Slowey
*All games 7:10 start time

Fishies Offense:
R - 117 (dead last by 25 runs)
AVG - .220 (dead last by .010)
OPS - .599 (dead last by .065)

The Marlins offense is potentially one of the worst in the history of the game.  They truly are playing with a minor league-esque lineup.  Rookie Marcel Ozuna/OF is the only real threat in the lineup (.299/.801).  Other than that, Justin Ruggiano/OF might run into a homerun now and then (7 HR), but his .206 batting average is bad.  Former Phillies Placido Polanco/3B, Greg Dobbs/1B, and Juan Pierre/OF all receive regular playing time with an OPS in the .552-.569 range.  If Cole Hamels doesn't shutdown this offense, then he should be kicked squarely in his nether regions.

Fishies Pitching:
ERA - 4.08 (18th)
WHIP - 1.35 (22nd)

The pitching is why the Marlins will be competitive against the Phillies this series.  While the Phils offense isn't as bad as the Marlins, it is still ranked 27th.  Meaning the Phils offense is easily shutdown as well.  Expect low scoring (aka- boring) games.

Prediction:
If the Phils swept the series, they would leave Miami with a winning record.  Unfortunately, don't expect that to happen.  Phils take 2 outta 3 and remain a losing ball club.

Durbin's Track Record & System Updates

Amaro recognizes middle relief is a weakness on the 2013 Phillies.  However, he doesn't seem in a hurry to fix it.  He demoted Raul Valdes and called up possibly a worse pitcher and BJ Rosenberg.  He continues to beat the drum for offseason free agent signing, Chad Durbin.  Claiming his track record determines he should remain for the time being.   Thing is, Durbin's track record to which Amaro refers isn't good at all.

Facts:
1) 35 years old
2) 14 MLB seasons
3) Career 5.00 ERA
4) Career 1.50 WHIP
5) Career WAR -0.3
6) Since 2007 he's flip-flopped between bad/good seasons, and 2013 puts him in line for a bad one.  Season/ERA (2007/4.72, 2008/2.87, 2009/4.39, 2010/3.80, 2011/5.53, 2012/3.10, 2013/8.10).
7) Career splits- versus RHB (.264/.794), vs. LHB (.286/.811), as starting pitcher (5.83/1.57), as a reliever (4.23/1.45), at home (4.26/1.43), away (5.88/1.60), 1st half (5.28/1.51), and 2nd half (4.64/1.50).  Essentially the only time you can hope for a mediocre performance out of him is at home, during the 2nd half of the season, facing a right-handed batter during a relief appearance in a year that ends with an even number.  Even then, it's nowhere close to being good. 

System Updates:
Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs - Cesar Hernandez is making his presence felt, batting .327/.848 with 12 stolen bases.  He's about to turn 23 years old and plays 2nd base.  He has a future with the Phillies in some capacity.  Prospects Cody Asche/3B (.278/.757) and Darin Ruf/LF/1B (.267/.796) are the only other batters worth mentioning on an otherwise disappointing team.  The pitching has been atrocious outside of Justin DeFratus, who is now with the Phillies.

Reading Fightin' Phils - this team is in a horrible funk during the month of May with a 3-15 record.  On the offensive side of things, Jim Murphy/1B is belting the ball (.311/.966, 9 HR, 30 RBI).  Starting pitcher Jesse Biddle and reliever Mauricio Robles are striking out more than a batter per inning with ERAs below 3 and WHIPs below 1.15.

Clearwater Threshers - the only team in the system with a winning record. It's also the only rung along the ladder that has a good offense.  Cameron Perkins/OF, Carlos Alonso/2B, Maikel Franco/3B, Jose Mojica/SS, Kelly Dugan/OF, and Aaron Altherr/OF have a batting average of .292 or better.  Starting pitchers Perci Garner, Gabriel Arias, and Nick Hernandez have been solid.

Lakewood BlueClaws - this team doesn't have any decent bats, aside from Art Charles/1B, Chace Numata/C, and Zach Taylor/OF.  It's a relatively uninspiring group on the pitching staff too.

DeFratus is a Winner

It took to the middle of May for the Phillies to realize they needed Justin DeFratus in their bullpen, and thank goodness they did.  In 3 appearances he's notched 2 wins, a hold, and allowed nary a base runner in 1 and 1/3 innings pitched.  He's quickly earned Manuel's trust and he's making fans take notice.

Series Preview- Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds (25-16) @ Philadelphia Phillies (19-22)

Pitching Match-Ups:
Friday, 7:05 - Tony Cingrani vs. Cliff Lee
Saturday, 4:05 - Bronson Arroyo vs. Respect the KK
Sunday, 1:35 - Homer Bailey vs. Petite Bone

Red Stockings Bats:
R - 195 (6th)
AVG - .251 (17th)
OPS - .728 (11th)

Joey Votto/1B (.456 OBP) and Shin-Soo Choo/CF (.468 OPS) are on base nearly half the time.  Then comes Brandon Phillips/2B (36 RBI) in the lineup knocking them in with regularity.  Not to be forgotten, Jay Bruce/RF has 14 doubles and Todd Frazier/3B has 6 HR and 25 RBI.  There are some holes in this lineup C, SS, and LF, but the others are more than capable of swinging the game in favor of the Reds.

Red Stockings Arms:
ERA - 3.43 (4th)
WHIP - 1.19 (1st)

Tonight's starting pitcher, rookie southpaw, Cingrani, is striking out 11.89 batters per 9 innings to go along with a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP.  Tomorrow's starter, Arroyo, continues to churn out quality outings (3.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP).  The Phils don't get a break on Sunday either with Bailey's 3.51 ERA/1.15 WHIP.  Their rotation has been great, and that's with staff ace Johnny Cueto on the DL.  Also, once the ball has been handed over to the bullpen, a trio of talent is there to hold the fort down (Aroldis Chapman, Sam Lecure, and Sean Marshall).

Prediction:
The Reds are good at both scoring runs and preventing them.  The Phillies are bad at both scoring runs and preventing them.  Therefore, Cincinnati takes 2 outta 3.

Big Z & The Terrible Trio

With Lannan and Halladay on the DL and the Phillies in need of starting pitching, Amaro inked Carlos Zambrano to a minor league deal, that includes and opt-out clause of July 1st. Big Z's temperament has been well documented, whether it be fighting with teammates, coaching staff, or umpires, he's a hothead. It's a low risk, high reward signing, that doesn't bother me as long as he doesn't come to fisticuffs with Utley by the 3rd inning of his first start. It may be hard to believe, but he's still only 31 years old and has been a good pitcher for most of his career. Zambrano owns a lifetime 132-91 record over 1959 innings with 3.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with the Cubs and Marlins. He's a helluva hitting pitcher too- .238/.636 with 75 R, 24 HR, and 71 RBI.

Terrible Trio:
This cannot be overstated- Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst, and Chard Durbin suck.  That is not mean, that is a fact.  When they come into a game, the losing score only becomes worse.  It's Charlie Manuel's version of the white flag.  As soon as he motions to the bullpen for any of the terrible trio, you know it's game over...for the Phillies.

2013 Stats:
Valdes - 7.65 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 5 HR
Horst - 5.29 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 2 HR
Durbin -7.30 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 3 HR
Collectively - 49 IP, 10 HR, 6.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP.

Amaro, do something!  Please!

With the way the Phillies have suffered through injures over the past few seasons, they might want to invest in some Better Braces for the 25 man roster.

Ya Gotta Believe?

The 2013 season has been gloom and doom here on We Should Be GMs. Perhaps there is one more run left in this group. Maybe we should believe. The following are reasons to think this team might still have a shot at glory.

Rookie Starting Pitcher Magic:
Cole Hamels (2006), Kyle Kendrick (2007), JA Happ (2008/2009),Vance Worley (2010/2011), and now possibly Jonathan Pettibone were successful rookies that made major contributions towards the Phillies winning ways.  Hamels and KK remain integral parts of the rotation, while Happ and the Vanimal have been shipped out.  Pettibone has been great through 5 starts: 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 29 IP.  His turn every 5th day is secure for the time being while Halladay is out.  Another rookie, Tyler Cloyd, has an opportunity to step up and impress as well with John Lannan on the DL.

Bullpen Improvement:
Jonathan Papelbon remains a premier closer, despite his infrequent save chances this season.  Mike Adams is dealing with a backache, but he's a top-notch setup man when available.  Antonio Bastardo is thriving this year as the go-to guy in the 7th inning.  Justin DeFratus has already earned Manuel's trust in just 2 appearances and has the potential to be a late inning reliever.  Phillippe Aumont has upside, but his control is his stumbling block (10 BB in 11 IP, 1.91 WHIP).  That leaves Jeremy Horst, Raul Valdes, and Chad Durbin as the only detractors.

Depth:
Freddy Galvis, Kevin Frandsen, Laynce Nix, and John Mayberry provide Manuel with options.  Galvis is a wizard with the glove and has produced at the plate so far.  Frandsen continues to hit in a Phils uniform and can play 3B/2B/1B.  Laynce Nix has been clutch pinch hitting- .350/1.050 in 20 at bats.  Mayberry can play position in the outfield and rips lefties (lifetime against LHP- .283/.870).

Return to Form:
1) Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than what he's shown in 2013.  Expect him to return to ace status soon.  2) Carlos Ruiz is a better hitter than this- .209/.509, expect a rebound to an OPS in the .750 range as soon as he gets his groove back. 3) Ben Revere is not this bad- .237/.548.  Although he'll never hit for power, he is only 25 years old and hit .281 with 74 stolen bases over the last 2 seasons in Minnesota. 4) Jimmy Rollins will never be a prototypical leadoff hitter, but he's better than his current .674 OPS.  Once he gets rolling, 15 HR/25 SB with an OPS near .725 seems reasonable.

Domonic Brown has Arrived:
For years Phillies fans have hoped the hype was real, but to their dismay it hadn't been.  However, Dom is showing life in his bat and his defense is improving.  Can it be that he's finally figured it out?  I tend to think so.  At 25 years old, he's still young and developing as a MLB player.  He's currently batting .257/.747 with 15 R, 7 HR, and 19 RBI.  He seems capable of a .270/.780, 20 HR, 75 RBI campaign.

They're Alive:
Chase Utley (.289.858) and Michael Young (.303/.773) have been producing like their old selves.  Saint Utley has reclaimed his status as an elite second baseman while Young has been steady with the bat and makes the routine plays at third, despite his poor range.

Does all this add up to a winning formula?  Ya gotta believe?